Will Putin pull the Nuclear Trigger?

Will Putin pull the Nuclear Trigger?

For almost two years, now, Putin has been warning the west that if they interfere with his "Special Military Operation" that there will be dire consequences.  As each line he draws is crossed, and he draws a new one, his threats become hollower.

Every once in a while, though, he likes to remind the world that Russia has nuclear weapons.  The veiled threat is there.  Every time he mentions it, people get nervous.

Recently, Putin signed into law Russia's' de-ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.

Although the United States is a signatory to the 1996 treaty, the US Congress never ratified it, themselves.  Since then, however, the US has maintained a moratorium on nuclear testing.

So, the next time Putin makes a threat, will he set off a small bomb in Siberia, just to reinforce his next demand?  What would the result be?

Naught

But Putin is our friend Trump said so.

It is no secret that Putin has meddled in the American elections, in order to get Trump elected.

Putin regards Trump as another tool to further his ambitions.

Trump has no clue when it comes to international relations.  Trumps idea of negotiation is to make a deal, then not pay the bill, and let his contractors take him to court.  Sound familiar?  The thing is, Trump is an amateur in foreign relations.  In his business model, he doesn't even wait for the paint to dry, before leaving the contractor hanging.  That sudden action does not work, when it comes to international relations.  It causes wars.

Putin, on the other hand, upholds his bargain.  To get what he wants, Putin will make all kinds of compromises.  Putin lets tensions cool off, before he starts again.  When everyone involved is relaxed, only then will Putin brake the agreement, usually on some manufactured excuse, (like the Ukrainian government is run by NAZI's, and they are persecuting ethnic Russians in Ukraine.)

Trump and Putin both have common ground.  They both hate the emerging liberal democratic order.  Trump because he wants no public interference in his business model, and Putin because his goal of creating a new Russian Empire will not succeed if Eastern Europe continues to embrace it.

Putin wants Trump to get the US out of NATO.  Putin wants Trump to revert the US to its isolationist policies of the 1920s and 30s.  Putin is banking on Trump creating so much discord in US politics, that the US turns on its self, and becomes a second rate power.  Even with Trump out of office, his influence on the Republican Party is having that effect.

Tuppence,

Naught

Ref:

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-united-states-and-russia-arent-allies-but-trump-and-putin-are/

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/25/politics/putin-russia-ukraine-international-law-what-matters/index.html

No. He won't. He is outgunned.

Putin is like a little boy with a pop cap gun thinking he is the big time boy in the OK Corral. He won't walk away after the gun fight.

0lds0d Posted Today, 04:13 PM . . . He is outgunned . . .

No really.  Putin is getting support from Iran and North Korea.  Although the Korean artillery shells may be subject quality issues, his main support is Iranian drones and small arms ammunition.

The Russians still have an edge on equipment.  Do not be fooled because they are using old T54s and 64s.  These tanks are being used a mobile guns, in the front line.  There are still a lot of 72s, 80s, and 90s that are being held back.  If the Russians do break the Ukrainian line, only then will you see those reserves deployed.

Like the Russians, the bulk of Ukrainian Armour is T72s, in multiple variants.  The Ukrainian Army has received some western main battle tanks, but they are slow in coming, and there are currently not enough in the field to make a significant difference.

There are two things in Putin's favour, right now.

The depth of the Russian defensive line is a death trap for armour.  The Ukrainians learned very quickly that the western tactics do not work.  Mine fields that are hundreds of metres deep, will blunt an armoured assault.  Modern armour is the cavalry of old.  Punch a hole in the enemies line, ride into their rear, create havoc, destroy supplies, and transportation.  They rely on their mobility.  A tank stuck in a mine field is just a sitting duck.

In order to breach the Russian lines, the Ukranians have to send out sappers, at night, who slowly clear paths through the minefields.  They must work in the dark, in silence, and caution.  That is why the current advances seem so slow.

The other thing is that Russia has a huge population of subject territories, in the East.  Do not let Official Russian Unemployment records fool you.  Places like Sakha, an "Independent Republic" in of the Russian Federation, have little or no economies, and huge unemployment rates.  Conscription rates in those areas are far above average.  Russia has far more cannon fodder than Ukraine.

That brings up what I call the "Chinese Offense."  If you are going to attack a position held by an Infantry Company, about 100 men, then it becomes a matter of numbers.

100 rifles x 5 30 round magazines each equals 15,000 rounds.  You attack with 15,300 men.  The enemy runs out of bullets, and you win.  So called, because the 2nd Bn, PPCLI held off a Chinese Division in Korea.

Each line of a Russian attack are sacrificed to allow the line behind them to get closer to the enemy.  In the rear, there are "Blocking Troops" who's job it is to shoot any retreating Russian soldiers.

Putin is quite happy to waste a thousand soldiers a day, if it buys him enough time rearm and regroup with properly trained troops.

Tuppence,

Naught.

It looks like Putin is setting the stage for his next threat.

https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2023/11/statement-on-russias-withdrawal-from-treaty-on-conventional-armed-forces-in-europe.html

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/nato-russia-treaty-1.7020607

By withdrawing from the treaty, Russia would no longer be bound to troop limits on the borders of NATO countries.

Putin blames the United States for it, although his reasoning is somewhat blurred.

Putin wants Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland back under Russian influence.

NATO has no choice, but to dissolve the treaty.  As Russia builds up it's border garrisons, NATO must match it.  Putin will point to the increased NATO troops on his border as a provocation by the United States.  Another "It's all your fault, not mine" excuse for what ever comes next.

This is the second major international agreement that Putin has reneged on, in recent days.

International reaction to Russia's' de-ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty has prompted Putin's response.

"Kremlin says nuclear arms dialogue with U.S. is necessary but not ready to be lectured"

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/kremlin-says-nuclear-arms-dialogue-with-u-s-is-necessary-but-not-ready-to-be-lectured-1.6635775

Putin knows he is losing in Ukraine.  He thinks he see's a tiny crack in support for Ukraine.

There has been a decline in military assistance from the smaller NATO and European nations.  This is not because those countries have waned.

Smaller nations, with smaller armies, do not have the huge resources that countries like the US, UK, France, and Germany do.

Many of them gave equipment to Ukraine, such as stocks of Soviet era T72 tanks.  In return, they were promised more modern NATO equipment as replacements.  Giving away a T72, and getting a new Leopard 2 tank in exchange, is a good deal.  However, you can not strip your own army bare, while waiting for the replacements.

Support in hardware by the smaller countries has not declined, but rather, it has changed.  Romania, for example, has established an F16 Fighter Training base, for the Ukrainian Air Force, in co-operation with the Dutch and Lockheed Martin.

In my opinion, Putin is setting the stage for his next act.  He is hoping that the political circus he helped to create in the US will explode during the upcoming election campaign.

Putin dose not need a Trump victory, although that would make him very happy.  Putin just wants to see the US destroy it's self.  When that happens, Putin will be laughing all the way to Warsaw.

Tuppence,

Naught

Numbers can be impressive but don't mean really a thing - Nazis in  WW2 were outnumbered by Russia and fought on other fronts and almost won.

Alexander the Great at the Battle of Gaugamela (331 BCE) proved a well trained, seasoned troops and a properly organized army can win over a larger force. Macedonians were greatly outnumbered (100,000 Persians vs 47,000 Macedonians) and won.

https://www.thecollector.com/alexander-greatest-battles/

There have many battles in history displaying one side wins despite being outnumbered or out gunned.

"It's not the size of the dog in the fight - it's the size of fight in the dog, that is important.

Edited by 0lds0d, 08 November 2023 - 12:36 PM.

"No really.  Putin is getting support from Iran and North Korea.  Although the Korean artillery shells may be subject quality issues, his main support is Iranian drones and small arms ammunition."

Not much overall help there either.

"Putin knows he is losing in Ukraine.  He thinks he see's a tiny crack in support for Ukraine."

Putin doesn't have to make any immediate or near future victories in Ukraine. It's a struggle of attrition and destruction of the nation that will bring Ukraine down in the end. This unofficial war could go on for another decade with Ukraine ending up with a downtrodden and decimated population, no infrastructures of any sort or support,  and the remaining and very small military suffering from PTSD. Russia wins in the very end - even it means losing for many years. Unless NATO steps in and beats those commies.

It looks like the Russians have been reading some Carl von Clausewitz and applying his theories in these modern times.

Edited by 0lds0d, 08 November 2023 - 12:44 PM.

"No he won't if he were to act on his threat he woukd have targeted chernobyl to cover his attack and use of a nuclear weapon.

0lds0d, on 08 Nov 2023 - 12:04 PM, said:  . . . many battles in history . . . one side wins despite being outnumbered . . .

 God is not on the side of the big battalions, but on the side of those who shoot best. Voltaire (c.1735-c.1750).

I don't disagree with you.  Look at the example I gave, regarding the 1951 battle of the Kapyong valley.

The Kapyong valley was a narrow road, between two steep mountain ridges.  It was the road to Seoul, and the Chinese needed to capture it, if they were going advance.

The 27th Commonwealth Brigade was assigned to defend it.  The brigade was deployed in a typical 2 up, 1 back defense.

The 3rd Battalion, Royal Australian Regiment (3 RAR), occupied Hill 504 on the eastern side of the valley.  The 2nd Battalion, Princess Patricia's Canadian Light Infantry (2 PPCLI), held Hill 677 on the western side.  Both battalions were about 700 men each.

The 1st Battalion, Middlesex Regiment were held in reserve, behind Brigade HQ.  The 1st Battalion, Argyle and Sutherland Highlander had already been withdrawn, and were on their way to Hong Kong.  The Middlesex were scheduled to go next.

The Brigade had the 16th Field Regiment (16 Fd Regt) of the Royal Regiment of New Zealand Artillery attached to it, adjacent to Bde HQ.

They were equipped with 25pdr's.

The Bde also had a squadron of 15 Sherman tanks from the American 72nd Heavy Tank Battalion, along with 2 companies of US Mortar Batteries.

On the night of the 23rd of April, the Chinese sent 20,000 men of the Peoples Volunteer Army straight at the Canadians and the Australians.

The American tanks found themselves in an untenable situation.  They could not climb the ridge lines, and were stuck on a narrow road with no room to maneuver.  They were forced to retire, and took up positions around the Bde HQ.

By the end of the Day, on the 24th, the Australians, who had been badly mauled, were ordered to withdraw, with the Canadians covering them, before leaving themselves.   Unfortunately, the Canadians found themselves out front and surrounded.

The night of the 24th was expected to be the last for 2PPCLI.  At least one Canadian Company called down fire from the NZ artillery, on it's own position, twice.

Help arrived on the 25th, when the American cargo planes, flying in from Japan, dropped food, water, and ammunition to the Canadians still left on top of Hill 677.

On the afternoon of the 25th, the 5th US Cavalry Regiment arrived, and recaptured Hill 504, late in the day.

After a relatively quiet night, the Canadians were re-leaved on the 26th.

In modern warfare, human waves do not work, against a determined defense.

The Terrikon is a 25m tall hill of mine spoil, outside the City of Avdiivka, in Ukraine.  25m (82') may not seem very high, but on the local Ukrainian farmland, it is a huge advantage in height.  It has cost the Russians thousands of men, and hundreds of armoured vehicles trying to capture it.  It is still there, and the Ukrainians still hold it.

Cheers!

Naught

No he won't if he were to act on his threat he woukd have targeted chernobyl to cover his attack and use of a nuclear weapon.

Seriously? It don't work that way, the west would easily tell the difference, Even if Chernobyl was hit by conventional weapons it wouldn't explode like a nuclear bomb it would leak massive amounts of radiation but not actually create a nuclear bomb type of explosion.

Edited by NickAu, 08 November 2023 - 07:14 PM.

I said "many battles", not all battles. 

Please don't misquote me. Or misread.

In which case your example is not valid. Of course there are many examples of  victories of larger forces defeating smaller forces. But that's not my point as given.

"There have many battles in history displaying one side wins despite being outnumbered or out gunned.

"And you think putin who you think is mentally unstable and unfit would think rationally about not using Chernobyl as a cover for small grade nuclear attack?"

Putin should be dropped into an oubliette, and then throw away the key.